Bournemouth vs AC Milan: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 3Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
The Footlab AI model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for AC Milan. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bournemouth wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
Bournemouth starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (2,252 vs 2,140).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bournemouth vs AC Milan
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1- 9Evanilson
- 16M. Tavernier
- 37Rayan
- 12T. Adams
- 8A. Scott
- 10R. Christie
- 5J. Hill
- 14António Silva
- 15A. Smith
- 3A. Truffert
- 1Đ. Petrović
AC Milan
3-4-2-1- 9Gonçalo Ramos
- 21S. Chukwueze
- 80Y. Musah
- 2P. Estupiñán
- 12A. Rabiot
- 22Diego Moreira
- 14L. Modrić
- 31S. Pavlović
- 34Mario Gila
- 5K. De Winter
- 16M. Maignan
Known absences
C. PulišićOut · Calf injury
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:14 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bournemouth have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; AC Milan have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-5 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Bournemouth score 2.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; AC Milan score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
| AC Milan | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bournemouth sit 10th in UEFA Europa League (3 points from 1 match) and AC Milan sit 31st (0 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 31 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
A question about Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for AC Milan.
- Where and when is Bournemouth vs AC Milan played?
- Bournemouth vs AC Milan is played on October 22, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Vitality Stadium, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.