Burgos vs Valladolid: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 36Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos
The Footlab model makes Burgos the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Valladolid. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burgos vs Valladolid?
Burgos starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (2,005 vs 1,871).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burgos have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Valladolid have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Eibar(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gimnástica Segoviana(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Burgos win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Valladolid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Valladolid 0-1 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Burgos 0-1 Valladolid | Segunda División |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Burgos 2-2 Valladolid | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Valladolid 1-1 Burgos | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Burgos 1-0 Valladolid | Segunda División |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Valladolid 3-0 Burgos | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Burgos score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Valladolid score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 1.0 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Valladolid | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burgos sit 11th in Segunda División (3 points from 2 matches) and Valladolid sit 21st (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Burgos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 21 | Valladolid | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burgos vs Valladolid?
- The Footlab model makes Burgos the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Valladolid.
- Where and when is Burgos vs Valladolid played?
- Burgos vs Valladolid is played on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.