Burundi vs Algeria: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 2Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Hamz Stadium, Kampala
The Footlab model makes Algeria the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Burundi. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burundi vs Algeria?
Algeria is a heavy favourite: 1,770 Elo points against 1,415 — a 354-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burundi have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Algeria have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Chad(home) | 4-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Chad(away) | 4-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Gabon(away) | 0-2 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Kenya(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Austria(home) | 3-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Jordan(away) | 2-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Bolivia(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Burundi win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Algeria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | Burundi 0-4 Algeria | Friendlies |
| Jun 11, 2019 | Algeria 1-0 Burundi | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Burundi score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Algeria score 2.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burundi | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 0/15 | 4/15 |
| Algeria | 2.2 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burundi sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 6 matches) and Algeria sit 1st (16 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Algeria | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Burundi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burundi vs Algeria?
- The Footlab model makes Algeria the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Burundi.
- Where and when is Burundi vs Algeria played?
- Burundi vs Algeria is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Hamz Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.