Bury vs Warrington Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 36Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gigg Lane, Bury, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Bury the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Warrington Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bury vs Warrington Town?
Bury starts as the favourite with a 191-point Elo edge (1,897 vs 1,706).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bury have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Warrington Town have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Lancaster City(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(away) | 2-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rylands(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Curzon Ashton(home) | 3-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Curzon Ashton(home) | 0-4 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Whitby Town(away) | 5-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Ilkeston Town(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cleethorpes Town(home) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Hyde United(home) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
How many goals should we expect?
Bury score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Warrington Town score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury | 1.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Warrington Town | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bury sit 7th in Non League Premier - Northern (10 points from 5 matches) and Warrington Town sit 2nd (13 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warrington Town | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Bury | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bury vs Warrington Town?
- The Footlab model makes Bury the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Warrington Town.
- Where and when is Bury vs Warrington Town played?
- Bury vs Warrington Town is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gigg Lane, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 13, 2027Alfreton TownvsWorkington
- Mar 13, 2027Gainsborough TrinityvsLeek Town
- Mar 13, 2027Ilkeston TownvsCurzon Ashton
- Mar 13, 2027Ashton UnitedvsGuiseley AFC
- Mar 13, 2027Bamber BridgevsRedcar Athletic
- Mar 13, 2027Lancaster CityvsAFC Emley
- Mar 13, 2027United of ManchestervsCleethorpes Town
- Mar 13, 2027Whitby TownvsAvro