CA Estudiantes vs San Miguel: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Ciudad de Caseros, Caseros, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes CA Estudiantes the favourite at 55%, against 29% for a draw and 16% for San Miguel. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CA Estudiantes vs San Miguel?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate CA Estudiantes (1,789) and San Miguel (1,712).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CA Estudiantes have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; San Miguel have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Central Norte(away) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chacarita Juniors(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo Madryn(home) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Defensores De Belgrano(away) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ciudad de Bolívar(home) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Colon Santa Fe(home) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colegiales(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Racing Cordoba(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | San Telmo(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Acassuso(home) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 CA Estudiantes win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 San Miguel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | San Miguel 1-1 CA Estudiantes | Primera Nacional |
| Jun 29, 2024 | CA Estudiantes 1-1 San Miguel | Primera Nacional |
| Feb 10, 2024 | San Miguel 0-0 CA Estudiantes | Primera Nacional |
| Apr 14, 2019 | San Miguel 0-1 CA Estudiantes | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Nov 4, 2018 | CA Estudiantes 0-0 San Miguel | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Mar 14, 2018 | San Miguel 3-0 CA Estudiantes | Primera B Metropolitana |
Last archived meeting: San Miguel vs CA Estudiantes on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CA Estudiantes score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; San Miguel score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Estudiantes | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| San Miguel | 0.8 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CA Estudiantes sit 7th in Primera Nacional (35 points from 26 matches) and San Miguel sit 11th (29 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 22 | 35 |
| 11 | San Miguel | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 20 | 25 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CA Estudiantes vs San Miguel?
- The Footlab model makes CA Estudiantes the favourite at 55%, against 29% for a draw and 16% for San Miguel.
- Where and when is CA Estudiantes vs San Miguel played?
- CA Estudiantes vs San Miguel is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Ciudad de Caseros, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026All BoysvsColon Santa Fe
- Sep 19, 2026Atletico MitrevsSan Telmo
- Sep 19, 2026Gimnasia JujuyvsSan Martin Tucuman
- Sep 19, 2026QuilmesvsClub Atlético Güemes
- Sep 19, 2026AlmagrovsNueva Chicago
- Sep 19, 2026Los AndesvsDeportivo Moron
- Sep 19, 2026Defensores De BelgranovsFerro Carril Oeste
- Sep 19, 2026PatronatovsSan Martin S.J.