Caerau (Ely) vs Pontardawe Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 25Kick-off on March 12, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Pontardawe Town. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Pontardawe Town?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (1,741 vs 1,552).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerau (Ely) vs Pontardawe Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Pontardawe Town
4-3-3- RR. Booth
- LL. Reed
- JJ. Dorward
- RR. Kostromin
- AA. Legavec
- CC. Dolman
- CC. Davies
- TT. Georgievsky
- HH. Lawson
- JJ. Dolman
- SS. Reeve
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Pontardawe Town have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 6-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 0-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Caerau (Ely) wins, 0 draws, 0 Pontardawe Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 3-1 Pontardawe Town | FAW Championship |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Pontardawe Town 3-6 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs Pontardawe Town on Apr 13, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Pontardawe Town score 1.5 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Pontardawe Town | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerau (Ely) sit 4th in FAW Championship (19 points from 10 matches) and Pontardawe Town sit 12th (10 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 10 |
A question about Caerau (Ely) vs Pontardawe Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Pontardawe Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Pontardawe Town.
- Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Pontardawe Town played?
- Caerau (Ely) vs Pontardawe Town is played on March 12, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 12, 2027Afan LidovsPontypridd Town
- Mar 12, 2027Caerphilly AthleticvsLlantwit Major
- Mar 12, 2027Newport Cityvsllanelli AFC
- Mar 13, 2027Carmarthen TownvsBaglan Dragons
- Mar 13, 2027Swansea UniversityvsAberystwyth Town
- Mar 13, 2027Cardiff DraconiansvsTrethomas Bluebirds
- Mar 13, 2027Ynyshir AlbionsvsTreowen Stars