Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 25Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LHP Stadium, Caerfyrddin / Carmarthen, Dyfed
The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons?
Carmarthen Town starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,614 vs 1,472).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carmarthen Town have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 4-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Carmarthen Town win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Baglan Dragons win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Baglan Dragons 0-7 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 0-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 1-1 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2024 | Carmarthen Town 3-2 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Baglan Dragons 2-2 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Carmarthen Town 0-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthen Town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Baglan Dragons | 0.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carmarthen Town sit 4th in FAW Championship (9 points from 4 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons?
- The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons played?
- Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons is played on March 13, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LHP Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 12, 2027Newport Cityvsllanelli AFC
- Mar 12, 2027Caerphilly AthleticvsLlantwit Major
- Mar 12, 2027Afan LidovsPontypridd Town
- Mar 12, 2027Caerau (Ely)vsPontardawe Town
- Mar 13, 2027Ynyshir AlbionsvsTreowen Stars
- Mar 13, 2027Swansea UniversityvsAberystwyth Town
- Mar 13, 2027Cardiff DraconiansvsTrethomas Bluebirds