Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 25Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LHP Stadium, Caerfyrddin / Carmarthen, Dyfed
The Footlab AI model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1. If Carmarthen Town wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,621 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Carmarthen Town (1,530) and Baglan Dragons (1,478).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Carmarthen Town
Not enough data to predict the Carmarthen Town lineup.
Baglan Dragons
Not enough data to predict the Baglan Dragons lineup.
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 07:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carmarthen Town have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 4-5 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Llantwit Fardre(away) | 3-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Carmarthen Town wins, 3 draws, 0 Baglan Dragons wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Baglan Dragons 1-2 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Baglan Dragons 0-7 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 0-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 1-1 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2024 | Carmarthen Town 3-2 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Baglan Dragons 2-2 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town on Sep 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Carmarthen Town score 1.9 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Baglan Dragons score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthen Town | 1.9 | 2.4 | 0 | 14/15 | 14/15 |
| Baglan Dragons | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carmarthen Town sit 9th in FAW Championship (15 points from 12 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 6th (17 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baglan Dragons | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 17 |
| 9 | Carmarthen Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 26 | 15 |
A question about Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons?
- The Footlab AI model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons played?
- Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons is played on March 13, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LHP Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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