Caldas vs Sintrense: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Mata, Caldas da Rainha
The Footlab model makes Sintrense the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Caldas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caldas vs Sintrense?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Caldas (1,830) and Sintrense (1,884).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caldas have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Sintrense have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 2-4 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Academica(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | 1º Dezembro(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Aljustrelense(home) | 4-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Portel(away) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Portimonense B(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Vasco da Gama Vidigueira(home) | 4-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Caldas win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sintrense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2021 | Caldas 1-0 Sintrense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group F |
| Oct 4, 2020 | Sintrense 0-1 Caldas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group F |
How many goals should we expect?
Caldas score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sintrense score 1.6 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caldas | 1.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Sintrense | 1.6 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caldas vs Sintrense?
- The Footlab model makes Sintrense the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Caldas.
- Where and when is Caldas vs Sintrense played?
- Caldas vs Sintrense is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Mata, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.