Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden
The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Cambuur. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar is a heavy favourite: 2,161 Elo points against 1,779 — a 382-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cambuur have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; AZ Alkmaar have 8, 7 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 2-5 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 0-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bologna(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 4-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Cambuur win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 AZ Alkmaar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Cambuur | Eredivisie |
| Aug 28, 2022 | Cambuur 0-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Jan 22, 2022 | AZ Alkmaar 0-0 Cambuur | Eredivisie |
| Oct 3, 2021 | Cambuur 1-3 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Mar 2, 2017 | AZ Alkmaar 0-0 Cambuur | KNVB Beker |
| Jan 27, 2016 | AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Cambuur | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur on Feb 25, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Cambuur score 1.5 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; AZ Alkmaar score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cambuur sit 17th in Eredivisie (0 points from 2 matches) and AZ Alkmaar sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 17 | Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
- The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Cambuur.
- Where and when is Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar played?
- Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar is played on October 18, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Kooi Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.