Heerenveen vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
The Footlab AI model makes Heerenveen the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 1-1. If Heerenveen wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Heerenveen (1,985) and Excelsior (1,948).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Heerenveen vs Excelsior
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Heerenveen
4-2-3-1- 9D. Vente
- 20J. Trenskow
- 7M. Rivera
- 36N. Courtens
- 10R. Meerveld
- 14L. Smans
- 4S. Kersten
- 19V. Zagaritis
- 3M. Willemsen
- 45O. Braude
- 22B. Klaverboer
Excelsior
4-3-3- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 21I. Silva Timas
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heerenveen have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Excelsior have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 0-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 22, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Heerenveen wins, 1 draw, 2 Excelsior wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Excelsior 1-2 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Heerenveen 2-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Jan 19, 2024 | Excelsior 3-0 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Heerenveen 0-3 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| May 13, 2023 | Heerenveen 0-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Nov 5, 2022 | Excelsior 0-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior vs Heerenveen on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Heerenveen score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 2.1 | 1.6 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heerenveen sit 10th in Eredivisie (9 points from 7 matches) and Excelsior sit 7th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
A question about Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab AI model makes Heerenveen the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is Heerenveen vs Excelsior played?
- Heerenveen vs Excelsior is played on October 16, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Abe Lenstra Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.