Groningen vs Ajax: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC)Euroborg, Groningen
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Groningen. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ajax wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (2,111 vs 1,957).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Groningen vs Ajax
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Groningen
4-2-3-1- 9B. Willumsson
- 24P. Clement
- 8T. de Jonge
- 26T. van Bergen
- 17D. van der Werff
- 11J. Ondrejka
- 3T. Blokzijl
- 14J. Schreuders
- 5M. Rente
- 4M. Csinger
- 1E. Vaessen
Ajax
4-3-3- 10O. Gloukh
- 99T. Arokodare
- 11V. Tsygankov
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 4S. Amrabat
- 15Y. Baas
- 6T. Kehrer
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 1M. ter Stegen
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 03:41 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groningen have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Ajax have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Twente(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Groningen win, 1 draw, 4 Ajax wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Ajax 2-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Groningen 3-1 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Ajax 2-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| May 14, 2025 | Groningen 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Ajax 3-1 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| May 16, 2023 | Groningen 2-3 Ajax | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Groningen score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Ajax | 3.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groningen sit 6th in Eredivisie (14 points from 8 matches) and Ajax sit 5th (15 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 14 |
A question about Groningen vs Ajax?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groningen vs Ajax?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Groningen.
- Where and when is Groningen vs Ajax played?
- Groningen vs Ajax is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC) at Euroborg, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.