Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
The Footlab model makes Sparta Rotterdam the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Willem II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Sparta Rotterdam starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,925 vs 1,820).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Rotterdam have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Willem II have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Telstar(away) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | MSV Duisburg(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OFI(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | KV Mechelen(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Sparta Rotterdam win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Willem II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | Willem II 1-5 Sparta Rotterdam | KNVB Beker |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Willem II 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Willem II 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Willem II 2-4 Sparta Rotterdam | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Willem II 0-3 Sparta Rotterdam | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam on Dec 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Rotterdam score 1.4 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Willem II score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.4 | 1.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Willem II | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sparta Rotterdam sit 7th in Eredivisie (4 points from 3 matches) and Willem II sit 16th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
- The Footlab model makes Sparta Rotterdam the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Willem II.
- Where and when is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II played?
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II is played on October 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.