Cardiff vs Norwich: prediction and stats
League CupRound of 64Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Cardiff City Stadium, Caerdydd
The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Norwich. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff vs Norwich?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Cardiff (2,005) and Norwich (1,910).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Norwich have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Cambridge United(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cardiff win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Norwich win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2025 | Norwich 4-2 Cardiff | Championship |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Cardiff 2-1 Norwich | Championship |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Norwich 4-1 Cardiff | Championship |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Cardiff 2-3 Norwich | Championship |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Norwich 2-0 Cardiff | Championship |
| Jul 30, 2022 | Cardiff 1-0 Norwich | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff score 2.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Norwich score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Norwich | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff vs Norwich?
- The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Norwich.
- Where and when is Cardiff vs Norwich played?
- Cardiff vs Norwich is played on August 25, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Cardiff City Stadium, in the League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.