Doncaster vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
League CupRound of 64Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Eco-Power Stadium, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Doncaster. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Doncaster vs Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,931 vs 1,819).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Doncaster have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Middlesbrough have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Barnsley(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mansfield Town(away) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stockport County(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Doncaster win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Middlesbrough win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2025 | Middlesbrough 0-4 Doncaster | League Cup |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Doncaster 3-5 Middlesbrough | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 1, 2014 | Doncaster 0-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Oct 25, 2013 | Middlesbrough 4-0 Doncaster | Championship |
| Apr 17, 2012 | Middlesbrough 0-0 Doncaster | Championship |
| Nov 1, 2011 | Doncaster 1-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Middlesbrough vs Doncaster on Aug 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Doncaster score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Doncaster vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Doncaster.
- Where and when is Doncaster vs Middlesbrough played?
- Doncaster vs Middlesbrough is played on August 25, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Eco-Power Stadium, in the League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.