Stoke City vs Hull City: prediction and stats
League CupRound of 64Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)bet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Hull City the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stoke City vs Hull City?
Hull City starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,902 vs 1,782).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stoke City have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Hull City have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nice(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Rizespor(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Konyaspor(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Stoke City win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Hull City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | Hull City 0-1 Stoke City | Championship |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Stoke City 1-2 Hull City | Championship |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Hull City 1-2 Stoke City | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2024 | Stoke City 1-3 Hull City | Championship |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Hull City 0-2 Stoke City | Championship |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Stoke City 1-3 Hull City | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Hull City vs Stoke City on Jan 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stoke City score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Hull City score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 1.2 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Hull City | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stoke City vs Hull City?
- The Footlab model makes Hull City the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Stoke City vs Hull City played?
- Stoke City vs Hull City is played on August 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at bet365 Stadium, in the League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.