Southampton vs West Ham: prediction and stats
League CupRound of 64Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab model makes West Ham the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Southampton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs West Ham?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Southampton (2,019) and West Ham (2,074).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; West Ham have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1. FC Magdeburg(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Southampton win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 West Ham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2025 | West Ham 1-1 Southampton | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Southampton 0-1 West Ham | Premier League |
| Apr 2, 2023 | West Ham 1-0 Southampton | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Southampton 1-1 West Ham | Premier League |
| Mar 2, 2022 | Southampton 3-1 West Ham | FA Cup |
| Dec 26, 2021 | West Ham 2-3 Southampton | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: West Ham vs Southampton on Apr 19, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; West Ham score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| West Ham | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs West Ham?
- The Footlab model makes West Ham the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Southampton.
- Where and when is Southampton vs West Ham played?
- Southampton vs West Ham is played on August 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.