Castellón vs Burgos: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 34Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Nou Estadi Castalia, Castellón de la Plana
The Footlab model makes Castellón the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Burgos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castellón vs Burgos?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Castellón (2,015) and Burgos (2,005).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castellón have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Burgos have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sabadell(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Real Sociedad II(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Levante(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hércules(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Castellón win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Burgos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Castellón 3-1 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Burgos 0-0 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Castellón 2-1 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Burgos 0-2 Castellón | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Castellón score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Burgos score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Burgos | 1.0 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castellón sit 7th in Segunda División (4 points from 2 matches) and Burgos sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Castellón | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Burgos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castellón vs Burgos?
- The Footlab model makes Castellón the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Burgos.
- Where and when is Castellón vs Burgos played?
- Castellón vs Burgos is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Nou Estadi Castalia, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.