Castellón vs Burgos: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 34Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Nou Estadi Castalia, Castellón de la Plana
The Footlab AI model makes Castellón the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Burgos. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castellón wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,572 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castellón vs Burgos?
On Elo ratings, Castellón has 2,107 points and Burgos 2,037.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Castellón vs Burgos
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Castellón
4-4-2- 10Israel Suero
- 16A. Jakobsen
- 8Barri
- 18Pablo Santiago
- 6M. Orozco
- 21Álvaro Martín
- 5Alberto Jiménez
- 4A. Sienra
- 22J. Mellot
- 14Iñigo Córdoba
- 13R. Matthys
Burgos
4-4-2- 7Jon Karrikaburu
- 16Curro Sánchez
- 19Javi Llabrés
- 14David González
- 12Unai Vencedor
- 4P. Galdames
- 15Oier Luengo
- 8Grego
- 22Brais Martínez
- 2Álex
- 13Ander Cantero
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 09:51 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castellón have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Burgos have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 11, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sabadell(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Granada CF(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Almeria(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Castellón wins, 1 draw, 0 Burgos wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Castellón 3-1 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Burgos 0-0 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Castellón 2-1 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Burgos 0-2 Castellón | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Castellón score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Burgos score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 1.7 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Burgos | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castellón sit 1st in Segunda División (26 points from 11 matches) and Burgos sit 9th (17 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 26 |
| 9 | Burgos | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 17 |
A question about Castellón vs Burgos?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castellón vs Burgos?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castellón the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Burgos.
- Where and when is Castellón vs Burgos played?
- Castellón vs Burgos is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Nou Estadi Castalia, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.