Castrense vs Louletano: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, Castro Verde
The Footlab model makes Louletano the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Castrense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castrense vs Louletano?
Louletano starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (1,937 vs 1,742).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 7 matches in all competitions, Castrense have 2 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Louletano have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2025 | Lusitânia Lourosa(home) | 0-5 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Quarteirense(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Moura(away) | 2-4 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Vila Meã(home) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 10, 2023 | Penedo Gordo(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 4-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| May 31, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 23, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Castrense win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Louletano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2017 | Louletano 1-1 Castrense | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: Louletano vs Castrense on Sep 3, 2017
How many goals should we expect?
Castrense score 0.7 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 7; Louletano score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castrense | 0.7 | 2.3 | 2 | 2/7 | 4/7 |
| Louletano | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 7 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castrense vs Louletano?
- The Footlab model makes Louletano the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Castrense.
- Where and when is Castrense vs Louletano played?
- Castrense vs Louletano is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.