Celoricense vs Pevidem: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Celorico de Basto, Celorico de Basto
The Footlab model makes Celoricense the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Pevidem. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celoricense vs Pevidem?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Celoricense (1,848) and Pevidem (1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celoricense have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Pevidem have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Maria da Fonte(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Montalegre(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Camacha(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Machico(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Brito(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2025 | Rebordosa(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Sandinenses(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Paredes(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Os Limianos(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Dumiense(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
How many goals should we expect?
Celoricense score 1.0 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Pevidem score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celoricense | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Pevidem | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celoricense vs Pevidem?
- The Footlab model makes Celoricense the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Pevidem.
- Where and when is Celoricense vs Pevidem played?
- Celoricense vs Pevidem is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Celorico de Basto, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.