Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka
The Footlab model makes Cerezo Osaka the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Kawasaki Frontale. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Cerezo Osaka (2,017) and Kawasaki Frontale (1,959).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerezo Osaka have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Kawasaki Frontale have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tochigi City(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(home) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Vanraure Hachinohe(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cerezo Osaka win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Kawasaki Frontale win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | Cerezo Osaka 2-0 Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League |
| May 18, 2025 | Kawasaki Frontale 2-0 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Kawasaki Frontale 1-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Cerezo Osaka 3-0 Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League |
| Mar 18, 2023 | Kawasaki Frontale 0-0 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale on Oct 25, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Kawasaki Frontale score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cerezo Osaka sit 6th in J1 League (6 points from 3 matches) and Kawasaki Frontale sit 14th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 14 | Kawasaki Frontale | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale?
- The Footlab model makes Cerezo Osaka the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Kawasaki Frontale.
- Where and when is Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale played?
- Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale is played on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsNagoya Grampus
- Oct 17, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsKyoto Sanga
- Oct 17, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsGamba Osaka
- Oct 17, 2026KashimavsV-varen Nagasaki
- Oct 17, 2026JEF United ChibavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Oct 17, 2026Machida ZelviavsAvispa Fukuoka
- Oct 17, 2026Mito HollyhockvsUrawa
- Oct 17, 2026Tokyo VerdyvsFC Tokyo