Where and when is Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki played?

Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Kashima Soccer Stadium, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Kashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima

Kashima

V-varen Nagasaki

The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for V-varen Nagasaki. The most likely score is 2-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki?

Kashima starts as the favourite with a 249-point Elo edge (2,158 vs 1,908).

Kashima win64 %

Draw22 %

V-varen Nagasaki win15 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kashima have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; V-varen Nagasaki have 5, 2 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Kashima
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Avispa Fukuoka(home)	3-2	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Nagoya Grampus(home)	2-1	J1 League
Aug 7, 2026	Yokohama F. Marinos(away)	4-3	J1 League
Jul 15, 2026	Vegalta Sendai(home)	5-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Vissel Kobe(home)	2-0	J1 League

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Mito Hollyhock(away)	1-0	J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 5 Kashima win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 V-varen Nagasaki win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 16, 2025	Kashima 2-1 V-varen Nagasaki	Emperor Cup
Aug 18, 2021	Kashima 3-1 V-varen Nagasaki	Emperor Cup
Dec 21, 2019	Kashima 3-2 V-varen Nagasaki	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2018	V-varen Nagasaki 1-2 Kashima	J1 League
May 2, 2018	Kashima 2-1 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League

Last archived meeting: Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki on Jul 16, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Kashima score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; V-varen Nagasaki score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Kashima	1.9	1.0	8	6/15	7/15
V-varen Nagasaki	1.2	1.5	2	9/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Kashima sit 3rd in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Kashima	3	3	0	0	9	6	9
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki?: The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for V-varen Nagasaki.
Where and when is Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki played?: Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Kashima Soccer Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.