Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa
The Footlab model makes Kashiwa Reysol the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Nagoya Grampus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Kashiwa Reysol (2,024) and Nagoya Grampus (1,951).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kashiwa Reysol have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Nagoya Grampus have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 4-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kashiwa Reysol win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Nagoya Grampus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Nagoya Grampus 1-2 Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| Jun 9, 2024 | Nagoya Grampus 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol | J-League Cup |
| Jun 5, 2024 | Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Nagoya Grampus | J-League Cup |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Kashiwa Reysol 0-2 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus on Nov 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kashiwa Reysol score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Nagoya Grampus | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kashiwa Reysol sit 2nd in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Nagoya Grampus sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus?
- The Footlab model makes Kashiwa Reysol the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Nagoya Grampus.
- Where and when is Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus played?
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus is played on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsKyoto Sanga
- Oct 17, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsGamba Osaka
- Oct 17, 2026KashimavsV-varen Nagasaki
- Oct 17, 2026Cerezo OsakavsKawasaki Frontale
- Oct 17, 2026JEF United ChibavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Oct 17, 2026Machida ZelviavsAvispa Fukuoka
- Oct 17, 2026Mito HollyhockvsUrawa
- Oct 17, 2026Tokyo VerdyvsFC Tokyo