Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Tokyo Verdy. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo?
FC Tokyo starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (2,003 vs 1,872).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tokyo Verdy have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; FC Tokyo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(home) | 4-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(away) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(home) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 2-4 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(home) | 6-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Tokyo Verdy win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 FC Tokyo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | FC Tokyo 2-1 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy 0-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Sep 15, 2025 | FC Tokyo 1-0 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Tokyo Verdy 2-2 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Aug 17, 2024 | FC Tokyo 0-0 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Tokyo Verdy 2-2 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs Tokyo Verdy on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tokyo Verdy score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; FC Tokyo score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | 1.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| FC Tokyo | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tokyo Verdy sit 17th in J1 League (2 points from 3 matches) and FC Tokyo sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 17 | Tokyo Verdy | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Tokyo Verdy.
- Where and when is Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo played?
- Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo is played on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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