Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Kyoto Sanga. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima starts as the favourite with a 183-point Elo edge (2,088 vs 1,905).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Kyoto Sanga have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(home) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Shonan Bellmare(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Kyoto Sanga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga 0-4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 Kyoto Sanga | J1 League |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Kyoto Sanga | J1 League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Kyoto Sanga 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 Kyoto Sanga | J1 League |
| May 19, 2024 | Kyoto Sanga 0-5 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Kyoto Sanga score 1.1 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Kyoto Sanga | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th in J1 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Kyoto Sanga sit 18th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 18 | Kyoto Sanga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Kyoto Sanga.
- Where and when is Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga played?
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga is played on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsNagoya Grampus
- Oct 17, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsGamba Osaka
- Oct 17, 2026KashimavsV-varen Nagasaki
- Oct 17, 2026Cerezo OsakavsKawasaki Frontale
- Oct 17, 2026JEF United ChibavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Oct 17, 2026Machida ZelviavsAvispa Fukuoka
- Oct 17, 2026Mito HollyhockvsUrawa
- Oct 17, 2026Tokyo VerdyvsFC Tokyo