Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka
The Footlab model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Shimizu S-pulse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka?
Gamba Osaka starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (2,022 vs 1,899).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shimizu S-pulse have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Gamba Osaka have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Karlsruher SC(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gangwon FC(away) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Shimizu S-pulse win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Gamba Osaka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse 1-2 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Gamba Osaka 2-2 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Shimizu S-pulse 0-0 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Gamba Osaka 1-0 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Gamba Osaka 0-2 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Apr 10, 2022 | Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shimizu S-pulse score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gamba Osaka score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Gamba Osaka | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shimizu S-pulse sit 15th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Gamba Osaka sit 10th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gamba Osaka | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka?
- The Footlab model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Shimizu S-pulse.
- Where and when is Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka played?
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka is played on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsNagoya Grampus
- Oct 17, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsKyoto Sanga
- Oct 17, 2026KashimavsV-varen Nagasaki
- Oct 17, 2026Cerezo OsakavsKawasaki Frontale
- Oct 17, 2026JEF United ChibavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Oct 17, 2026Machida ZelviavsAvispa Fukuoka
- Oct 17, 2026Mito HollyhockvsUrawa
- Oct 17, 2026Tokyo VerdyvsFC Tokyo