CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 6Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for CF Pachuca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate CF Pachuca (1,938) and Guadalajara Chivas (1,983).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CF Pachuca have 7 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats; Guadalajara Chivas have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Leon(away) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Santos Laguna(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Puebla(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 CF Pachuca win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Guadalajara Chivas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Nov 3, 2025 | CF Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Oct 19, 2024 | CF Pachuca 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Apr 13, 2024 | CF Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Guadalajara Chivas 0-0 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Guadalajara Chivas vs CF Pachuca on Jan 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CF Pachuca score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Guadalajara Chivas score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CF Pachuca sit 13th in Liga MX (3 points from 3 matches) and Guadalajara Chivas sit 12th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Guadalajara Chivas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | CF Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
- The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for CF Pachuca.
- Where and when is CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas played?
- CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas is played on August 29, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Hidalgo, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.