Necaxa vs Cruz Azul: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 6Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
The Footlab model makes Cruz Azul the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Necaxa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Necaxa vs Cruz Azul?
Cruz Azul starts as the favourite with a 217-point Elo edge (2,065 vs 1,848).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Necaxa have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Cruz Azul have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leon(home) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Chicago Fire(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Toluca(away) | 1-3 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Club Tijuana(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chicago Fire(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | New York City FC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Necaxa win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Cruz Azul win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Cruz Azul 4-1 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Necaxa 1-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Necaxa 1-3 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Cruz Azul 3-0 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Cruz Azul 1-2 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Oct 5, 2023 | Necaxa 1-3 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Necaxa score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cruz Azul score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 1.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Cruz Azul | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Necaxa sit 8th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Cruz Azul sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Necaxa vs Cruz Azul?
- The Footlab model makes Cruz Azul the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Necaxa.
- Where and when is Necaxa vs Cruz Azul played?
- Necaxa vs Cruz Azul is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Victoria, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.