Charlton vs Stoke City: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 42Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Valley, London
The Footlab model makes Charlton the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Charlton vs Stoke City?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Charlton (1,860) and Stoke City (1,788).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Charlton have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Stoke City have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Derby(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Reading(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Southampton(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Charlton win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Stoke City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Charlton 1-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Stoke City 3-0 Charlton | Championship |
| Feb 8, 2020 | Stoke City 3-1 Charlton | Championship |
| Aug 10, 2019 | Charlton 3-1 Stoke City | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Charlton vs Stoke City on Feb 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Charlton score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Stoke City score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Stoke City | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Charlton sit 3rd in Championship (6 points from 2 matches) and Stoke City sit 21st (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 21 | Stoke City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Charlton vs Stoke City?
- The Footlab model makes Charlton the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Charlton vs Stoke City played?
- Charlton vs Stoke City is played on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Valley, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.