Chavdar Etropole vs Natsional Sofia: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 15Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Chavdar, Etropole
The Footlab model makes Chavdar Etropole the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Natsional Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chavdar Etropole vs Natsional Sofia?
Chavdar Etropole starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,599 vs 1,463).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chavdar Etropole have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Natsional Sofia have 3, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Septemvri Simitli(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Strumska Slava(away) | 1-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oborishte(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bansko(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Feb 17, 2024 | CSKA Sofia II(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Strumska Slava(home) | 0-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oborishte(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bansko(home) | 2-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FK Minyor Pernik(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Rilski Sportist(home) | 3-4 | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Chavdar Etropole score 2.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Natsional Sofia score 3.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chavdar Etropole | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Natsional Sofia | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 5/9 | 8/9 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chavdar Etropole sit 14th in Third League - Southwest (4 points from 4 matches) and Natsional Sofia sit 17th (1 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Chavdar Etropole | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chavdar Etropole vs Natsional Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Chavdar Etropole the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Natsional Sofia.
- Where and when is Chavdar Etropole vs Natsional Sofia played?
- Chavdar Etropole vs Natsional Sofia is played on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Chavdar, in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026Balkan BotevgradvsFK Minyor Pernik
- Oct 31, 2026Botev IhtimanvsBelasitsa
- Oct 31, 2026Slivnishki geroyvsOborishte
- Oct 31, 2026KostinbrodvsBansko
- Oct 31, 2026Septemvri Sofia IIvsStrumska Slava
- Oct 31, 2026Levski Sofia IIvsSeptemvri Simitli
- Oct 31, 2026Slavia Sofia IIvsKyustendil
- Oct 31, 2026CSKA Sofia IIIvsPirin Razlog