Chełmianka Chełm vs Star Starachowice: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 12Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Chełm
The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Star Starachowice. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chełmianka Chełm vs Star Starachowice?
Chełmianka Chełm starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,926 vs 1,762).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chełmianka Chełm have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Star Starachowice have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naprzód(away) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wisłoka Dębica(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moravia Morawica(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Busko-Zdroj(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Czarni Połaniec(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hetman Zamosc(away) | 0-3 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | KSZO 1929(home) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wisła Kraków II(away) | 2-4 | III Liga - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chełmianka Chełm win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Star Starachowice win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Chełmianka Chełm 5-2 Star Starachowice | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Star Starachowice 1-1 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Chełmianka Chełm 1-1 Star Starachowice | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Star Starachowice 5-1 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Star Starachowice 1-1 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Chełmianka Chełm 2-0 Star Starachowice | III Liga - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Chełmianka Chełm vs Star Starachowice on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chełmianka Chełm score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Star Starachowice score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chełmianka Chełm | 2.1 | 0.9 | 8 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Star Starachowice | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chełmianka Chełm sit 1st in III Liga - Group 4 (15 points from 5 matches) and Star Starachowice sit 15th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 15 | Star Starachowice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chełmianka Chełm vs Star Starachowice?
- The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Star Starachowice.
- Where and when is Chełmianka Chełm vs Star Starachowice played?
- Chełmianka Chełm vs Star Starachowice is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026KSZO 1929vsBusko-Zdroj
- Oct 10, 2026Hetman ZamoscvsCzarni Połaniec
- Oct 10, 2026Korona Kielce IIvsPodlasie Biała Podlaska
- Oct 10, 2026Wiślanie JaśkowicevsSiarka Tarnobrzeg
- Oct 10, 2026Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówvsKS Wieczysta Krakow II
- Oct 10, 2026Wisła Kraków IIvsJarosław
- Oct 10, 2026NaprzódvsSokół Kolb.
- Oct 10, 2026Moravia MorawicavsWisłoka Dębica