Cinfães vs Espinho: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Cerveira Pinto, Cinfães
The Footlab model makes Cinfães the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Espinho. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cinfães vs Espinho?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Cinfães (1,885) and Espinho (1,909).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cinfães have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Espinho have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sousense(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Aparecida(home) | 5-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Resende(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Salgueiros(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Almodôvar(home) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Florgrade(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Mar 6, 2022 | Santa Cruz de Alvarenga(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 20, 2022 | Gouveia(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Cinfães win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Espinho win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2018 | Cinfães 0-0 Espinho | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Cinfães 4-0 Espinho | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Cinfães score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Espinho score 1.8 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cinfães | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Espinho | 1.8 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cinfães vs Espinho?
- The Footlab model makes Cinfães the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Espinho.
- Where and when is Cinfães vs Espinho played?
- Cinfães vs Espinho is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Cerveira Pinto, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.