Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:30 AM (UTC)Dick's Sporting Goods Park, Commerce City, Colorado
The Footlab model makes Colorado Rapids the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for San Jose Earthquakes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Colorado Rapids (1,757) and San Jose Earthquakes (1,747).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colorado Rapids have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; San Jose Earthquakes have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | San Diego(away) | 0-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City(home) | 2-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Austin(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | St. Louis City(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 1-5 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Colorado Rapids win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 San Jose Earthquakes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Colorado Rapids 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes | US Open Cup |
| May 11, 2025 | Colorado Rapids 0-2 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 16, 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
| May 12, 2024 | Colorado Rapids 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 14, 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes 0-3 Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 4, 2023 | Colorado Rapids 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes on May 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Colorado Rapids score 0.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; San Jose Earthquakes score 1.7 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 0.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colorado Rapids sit 7th in Major League Soccer (28 points from 21 matches) and San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th (33 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 33 | 33 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 21 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 28 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- The Footlab model makes Colorado Rapids the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for San Jose Earthquakes.
- Where and when is Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes played?
- Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:30 AM (UTC) at Dick's Sporting Goods Park, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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