Comoros vs Congo: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Bingu National Stadium, Lilongwe
The Footlab model makes Comoros the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Congo. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Comoros vs Congo?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Comoros (1,472) and Congo (1,412).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Comoros have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Congo have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Equatorial Guinea(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Kazakhstan(away) | 0-1 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Namibia(away) | 0-0 | FIFA Series |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Mali(home) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Zambia(away) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Morocco(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Niger(away) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Tanzania(home) | 1-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Nigeria(away) | 0-2 | African Nations Championship |
| Aug 12, 2025 | Senegal(away) | 1-1 | African Nations Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Comoros score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Congo score 0.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comoros | 1.1 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Congo | 0.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Comoros sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (12 points from 6 matches) and Congo sit 3rd (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Comoros | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Congo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Comoros vs Congo?
- The Footlab model makes Comoros the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Congo.
- Where and when is Comoros vs Congo played?
- Comoros vs Congo is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Bingu National Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.