Tunisia vs Libya: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi, Radès
The Footlab AI model makes Tunisia the favourite at 72%, against 19% for a draw and 9% for Libya. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tunisia vs Libya?
Tunisia starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,623 vs 1,491).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tunisia vs Libya
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tunisia
5-3-2- 18A. Ben Slimane
- 11Ismaël Gharbi
- 23S. Ltaief
- 13F. Sassi
- 12A. Maâloul
- 3M. Talbi
- 4M. Nasraoui
- 2A. Abdi
- 20Y. Valery
- 2A. Ben Hmida
- 16A. Dahmen
Known absences
A. ArousOut · Wound
M. NeffatiOut · Wound
Libya
4-3-3- 9Ezoo El Mariamy
- AA. Al Gsheim
- 10Muhammad Saeed
- 20Osama Mukhtar Al Shremi
- 14M. Madyen
- 16Al Musrati
- 4Ali Yousef Musrati
- 21Sayfulnasr Judour
- 2M. Al Jurnazi
- 13Talal Farhat
- 1Murad Al Wuheeshi
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 10:29 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tunisia have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Libya have 4, 8 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Botswana(home) | 2-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Uganda(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Netherlands(home) | 1-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Japan(home) | 0-4 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Sweden(away) | 1-5 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Uganda(away) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Botswana(home) | 2-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Liberia(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Niger(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Palestine(away) | 0-0 | Arab Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Tunisia wins, 0 draws, 0 Libya wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | Libya 0-1 Tunisia | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 24, 2023 | Tunisia 3-0 Libya | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 25, 2021 | Libya 2-5 Tunisia | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 15, 2019 | Tunisia 4-1 Libya | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 20, 2019 | Libya 1-2 Tunisia | African Nations Championship |
| Sep 21, 2019 | Tunisia 1-0 Libya | African Nations Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Tunisia score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Libya score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Libya | 0.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tunisia sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (2 points from 2 matches) and Libya sit 4th (1 point from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tunisia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 4 | Libya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
A question about Tunisia vs Libya?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tunisia vs Libya?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tunisia the favourite at 72%, against 19% for a draw and 9% for Libya.
- Where and when is Tunisia vs Libya played?
- Tunisia vs Libya is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.