Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Kraków
The Footlab model makes Cracovia Krakow the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Legia Warszawa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (2,059 vs 1,949).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cracovia Krakow have 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats; Legia Warszawa have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(home) | 3-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa(home) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Slask Wroclaw(away) | 0-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin(home) | 0-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lech Poznan(away) | 0-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(home) | 5-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Korona Kielce(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Zaglebie Lubin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin(away) | 1-0 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cracovia Krakow win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Legia Warszawa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| May 18, 2025 | Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Legia Warszawa 3-2 Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| Dec 20, 2023 | Cracovia Krakow 2-0 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Legia Warszawa 2-0 Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cracovia Krakow score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Legia Warszawa score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia Krakow | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Legia Warszawa | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cracovia Krakow sit 3rd in Ekstraklasa (8 points from 5 matches) and Legia Warszawa sit 1st (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Cracovia Krakow | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
- The Footlab model makes Cracovia Krakow the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Legia Warszawa.
- Where and when is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa played?
- Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Gornik ZabrzevsPiast Gliwice
- Oct 17, 2026Wisla PlockvsRadomiak Radom
- Oct 17, 2026Zaglebie LubinvsJagiellonia
- Oct 17, 2026Lech PoznanvsKorona Kielce
- Oct 17, 2026GKS KatowicevsPogon Szczecin
- Oct 17, 2026Widzew ŁódźvsWisla Krakow
- Oct 17, 2026Motor LublinvsSlask Wroclaw
- Oct 17, 2026Wieczysta KrakówvsRaków Częstochowa