Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)KGHM Zagłębie Arena, Lubin
The Footlab model makes Zaglebie Lubin the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Jagiellonia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (2,060 vs 1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zaglebie Lubin have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Jagiellonia have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(away) | 0-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Slask Wroclaw(home) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(away) | 1-3 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 2-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Chrobry Głogów(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Widzew Łódź(home) | 0-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rangers(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Motor Lublin(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Zaglebie Lubin win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Jagiellonia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Jagiellonia 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Jagiellonia 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Jagiellonia 1-3 Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Zaglebie Lubin score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Jagiellonia score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie Lubin | 1.3 | 0.9 | 7 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Jagiellonia | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zaglebie Lubin sit 6th in Ekstraklasa (7 points from 4 matches) and Jagiellonia sit 10th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
- The Footlab model makes Zaglebie Lubin the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Jagiellonia.
- Where and when is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia played?
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at KGHM Zagłębie Arena, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 17, 2026Lech PoznanvsKorona Kielce
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- Oct 17, 2026GKS KatowicevsPogon Szczecin
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