Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Enea Stadion, Poznań
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Korona Kielce. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?
Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (2,138 vs 1,943).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lech Poznan have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Korona Kielce have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Motor Lublin(home) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Widzew Łódź(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(home) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Jagiellonia(away) | 0-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Nieciecza(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Lech Poznan win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Korona Kielce win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Korona Kielce 1-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Lech Poznan 1-1 Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Lech Poznan 2-0 Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Korona Kielce 2-3 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| May 25, 2024 | Lech Poznan 1-2 Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Korona Kielce 0-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Korona Kielce score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Korona Kielce | 0.9 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lech Poznan sit 4th in Ekstraklasa (7 points from 3 matches) and Korona Kielce sit 11th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Korona Kielce.
- Where and when is Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce played?
- Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Enea Stadion, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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