Crewe vs Newport County: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Mornflake Stadium, Crewe, Cheshire
The Footlab model makes Crewe the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Newport County. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Crewe vs Newport County?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Crewe (1,780) and Newport County (1,709).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Crewe have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Newport County have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chester(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 3-5 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Crewe win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Newport County win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | Newport County 2-0 Crewe | League Two |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Crewe 2-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Crewe 0-3 Newport County | League Two |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Newport County 2-1 Crewe | League Two |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Newport County 1-1 Crewe | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2023 | Crewe 4-2 Newport County | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Newport County vs Crewe on Dec 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Crewe score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Newport County score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Newport County | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Crewe sit 2nd in League Two (6 points from 2 matches) and Newport County sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Crewe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Newport County | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Crewe vs Newport County?
- The Footlab model makes Crewe the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Newport County.
- Where and when is Crewe vs Newport County played?
- Crewe vs Newport County is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Mornflake Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.