Curzon Ashton vs Bury: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 21Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Tameside Stadium, Ashton-under-Lyne, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Bury the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Curzon Ashton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Curzon Ashton vs Bury?
Bury starts as the favourite with a 188-point Elo edge (1,893 vs 1,705).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Curzon Ashton have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Bury have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Bamber Bridge(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 14, 2026 | AFC Emley(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Bury(away) | 2-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Alfreton Town(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(away) | 2-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rylands(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Curzon Ashton(home) | 3-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(away) | 0-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Curzon Ashton win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Bury win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Bury 3-2 Curzon Ashton | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Bury vs Curzon Ashton on Aug 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Curzon Ashton score 1.1 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Bury score 2.0 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curzon Ashton | 1.1 | 2.0 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Bury | 2.0 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Curzon Ashton sit 16th in Non League Premier - Northern (4 points from 5 matches) and Bury sit 7th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bury | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 16 | Curzon Ashton | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Curzon Ashton vs Bury?
- The Footlab model makes Bury the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Curzon Ashton.
- Where and when is Curzon Ashton vs Bury played?
- Curzon Ashton vs Bury is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Tameside Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 28, 2026Guiseley AFCvsWhitby Town
- Nov 28, 2026Gainsborough TrinityvsAlfreton Town
- Nov 28, 2026Hyde UnitedvsWarrington Town
- Nov 28, 2026Ilkeston TownvsAFC Emley
- Nov 28, 2026Leek TownvsUnited of Manchester
- Nov 28, 2026Cleethorpes TownvsQuorn
- Nov 28, 2026Ashton UnitedvsStockton Town
- Nov 28, 2026AvrovsBamber Bridge