D. La Serena vs Universidad de Chile: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónRegular Season - 23Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Portada de La Serena, La Serena
The Footlab model makes Universidad de Chile the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for D. La Serena. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win D. La Serena vs Universidad de Chile?
Universidad de Chile starts as the favourite with a 225-point Elo edge (1,877 vs 1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, D. La Serena have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Universidad de Chile have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cobresal(home) | 3-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Universidad de Concepcion(away) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | O'Higgins(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | U. Catolica(away) | 3-3 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Colo Colo(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportes Limache(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Palestino(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Union San Felipe(away) | 1-0 | Copa Chile |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Huachipato(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 D. La Serena win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Universidad de Chile win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | D. La Serena 0-5 Universidad de Chile | Copa De La Liga |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Universidad de Chile 4-0 D. La Serena | Primera División |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Universidad de Chile 2-2 D. La Serena | Copa De La Liga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | D. La Serena 1-1 Universidad de Chile | Primera División |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Universidad de Chile 3-1 D. La Serena | Primera División |
| Oct 9, 2022 | D. La Serena 1-2 Universidad de Chile | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: D. La Serena vs Universidad de Chile on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
D. La Serena score 1.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Universidad de Chile score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. La Serena | 1.7 | 2.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Universidad de Chile | 2.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
D. La Serena sit 12th in Primera División (18 points from 15 matches) and Universidad de Chile sit 3rd (24 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 15 | 36 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 10 | D. La Serena | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 31 | 34 | 24 |
| 12 | D. La Serena | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for D. La Serena vs Universidad de Chile?
- The Footlab model makes Universidad de Chile the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for D. La Serena.
- Where and when is D. La Serena vs Universidad de Chile played?
- D. La Serena vs Universidad de Chile is played on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Portada de La Serena, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.