Deportivo Alavés II vs Gernika: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Alavés II the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Gernika. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Deportivo Alavés II vs Gernika?
Deportivo Alavés II starts as the favourite with a 151-point Elo edge (1,992 vs 1,841).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportivo Alavés II have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Gernika have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Real Jaén(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | Real Jaén(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Gernika(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Tudelano(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ejea(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés II(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Basconia(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Tudelano(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Amorebieta(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Utebo(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Deportivo Alavés II win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Gernika win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Gernika 0-0 Deportivo Alavés II | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Deportivo Alavés II 0-1 Gernika | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Deportivo Alavés II 0-1 Gernika | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Gernika 1-1 Deportivo Alavés II | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Deportivo Alavés II 1-2 Gernika | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Gernika 3-1 Deportivo Alavés II | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Gernika vs Deportivo Alavés II on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Deportivo Alavés II score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gernika score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés II | 1.3 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Gernika | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Deportivo Alavés II vs Gernika?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Alavés II the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Gernika.
- Where and when is Deportivo Alavés II vs Gernika played?
- Deportivo Alavés II vs Gernika is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.