Sestao River vs Gimnástica Torrelavega: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Las Llanas, Sestao
The Footlab model makes Gimnástica Torrelavega the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Sestao River. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sestao River vs Gimnástica Torrelavega?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Sestao River (1,892) and Gimnástica Torrelavega (1,973).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sestao River have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Gimnástica Torrelavega have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Athletic Club II(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Utebo(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Amorebieta(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Basconia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Sestao River win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Gimnástica Torrelavega win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega 1-1 Sestao River | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Sestao River on Aug 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sestao River score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Gimnástica Torrelavega score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sestao River | 1.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Gimnástica Torrelavega | 2.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sestao River vs Gimnástica Torrelavega?
- The Footlab model makes Gimnástica Torrelavega the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Sestao River.
- Where and when is Sestao River vs Gimnástica Torrelavega played?
- Sestao River vs Gimnástica Torrelavega is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Las Llanas, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.