Where and when is Arosa vs Bergantiños played?

Arosa vs Bergantiños is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio A Lomba, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arosa vs Bergantiños: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio A Lomba, Vilagarcía de Arousa

Arosa

Bergantiños

The Footlab model makes Arosa the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Bergantiños. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arosa vs Bergantiños?

A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Arosa (1,903) and Bergantiños (1,882).

Arosa win45 %

Draw27 %

Bergantiños win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arosa have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Bergantiños have 5, 3 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arosa
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 1, 2026	Pontevedra(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 10, 2026	Celtiga(home)	3-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
May 2, 2026	Cambados(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Boiro(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 19, 2026	Barco(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

Bergantiños
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Sámano(away)	5-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	UD Ourense(home)	1-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 18, 2026	Real Oviedo II(away)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 12, 2026	Sarriana(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 5, 2026	Real Valladolid II(away)	4-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Arosa win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Bergantiños win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 7, 2024	Bergantiños 0-0 Arosa	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 19, 2023	Arosa 1-3 Bergantiños	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
May 15, 2022	Arosa 1-1 Bergantiños	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Jan 8, 2022	Bergantiños 2-1 Arosa	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
May 2, 2021	Bergantiños 2-1 Arosa	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 11, 2021	Arosa 3-1 Bergantiños	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Bergantiños vs Arosa on Apr 7, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Arosa score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Bergantiños score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arosa	1.7	0.8	7	7/15	5/15
Bergantiños	1.5	1.4	4	6/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	Bergantiños	34	13	9	12	44	37	48

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arosa vs Bergantiños?: The Footlab model makes Arosa the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Bergantiños.
Where and when is Arosa vs Bergantiños played?: Arosa vs Bergantiños is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio A Lomba, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.