Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 16Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Garcilaso the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Comerciantes Unidos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Deportivo Garcilaso starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,711 vs 1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportivo Garcilaso have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Comerciantes Unidos have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Grau(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 2-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Deportivo Garcilaso win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Comerciantes Unidos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Deportivo Garcilaso 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Comerciantes Unidos 2-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Mar 28, 2024 | Deportivo Garcilaso 1-2 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Comerciantes Unidos vs Deportivo Garcilaso on May 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.6 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Comerciantes Unidos score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1.6 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 1.0 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Deportivo Garcilaso sit 7th in Primera División (26 points from 17 matches) and Comerciantes Unidos sit 9th (21 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 21 | 39 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | Comerciantes Unidos | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Garcilaso the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Comerciantes Unidos.
- Where and when is Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos played?
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos is played on November 7, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 7, 2026UniversitariovsUCV Moquegua
- Nov 7, 2026Sport BoysvsUTC Cajamarca
- Nov 7, 2026FBC MelgarvsJuan Pablo II College
- Nov 7, 2026CiencianovsSport Huancayo
- Nov 7, 2026Atletico GrauvsCusco
- Nov 7, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsAlianza Lima
- Nov 7, 2026ADTvsSporting Cristal
- Nov 7, 2026FC CajamarcavsAlianza Atletico