Dongen vs JOS Watergraafsmeer: prediction and stats
KNVB Beker1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Biezen, Dongen
The Footlab model makes Dongen the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for JOS Watergraafsmeer. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dongen vs JOS Watergraafsmeer?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Dongen (1,662) and JOS Watergraafsmeer (1,573).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dongen have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; JOS Watergraafsmeer have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | EVV(away) | 3-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zwaluwen(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Heerjansdam(away) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Heerjansdam(home) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| May 30, 2026 | SVV Scheveningen(away) | 2-0 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | NEO(home) | 2-3 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| May 27, 2026 | NEO(away) | 0-3 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Excelsior '31(home) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Jun 4, 2025 | Excelsior '31(away) | 0-1 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Heino(home) | 1-0 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Dongen win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 JOS Watergraafsmeer win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2023 | JOS Watergraafsmeer 0-3 Dongen | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Sep 25, 2022 | Dongen 2-3 JOS Watergraafsmeer | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 8, 2022 | JOS Watergraafsmeer 3-2 Dongen | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Aug 22, 2021 | Dongen 1-1 JOS Watergraafsmeer | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
Last archived meeting: JOS Watergraafsmeer vs Dongen on Mar 12, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Dongen score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; JOS Watergraafsmeer score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dongen | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| JOS Watergraafsmeer | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dongen vs JOS Watergraafsmeer?
- The Footlab model makes Dongen the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for JOS Watergraafsmeer.
- Where and when is Dongen vs JOS Watergraafsmeer played?
- Dongen vs JOS Watergraafsmeer is played on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Biezen, in the KNVB Beker.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.