Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros: prediction and stats
Liga Premier Serie AApertura - 6Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Dragones de Oaxaca the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Real Refineros. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros?
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dragones de Oaxaca have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Real Refineros have 0, 0 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Poza Rica(away) | 1-2 | Liga Premier Serie B |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Poza Rica(home) | 1-1 | Liga Premier Serie B |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Aguacateros CDU(away) | 0-0 | Liga Premier Serie B |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Poza Rica(home) | 5-1 | Liga Premier Serie B |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Acambaro(home) | 1-2 | Liga Premier Serie B |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros?
- The Footlab model makes Dragones de Oaxaca the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Real Refineros.
- Where and when is Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros played?
- Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros is played on October 3, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC), in the Liga Premier Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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