Elana Toruń vs Victoria Września: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 2Group II - 15Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego, Toruń
The Footlab model makes Elana Toruń the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Victoria Września. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elana Toruń vs Victoria Września?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Elana Toruń (1,694) and Victoria Września (1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elana Toruń have 1 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats; Victoria Września have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Noteć Czarnków(away) | 1-3 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Unia Swarzędz(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grom Nowy Staw(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gedania Gdansk(home) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lipno Stęszew(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kotwica Kórnik(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Flota Świnoujście(away) | 0-5 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Luzino(home) | 1-3 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Polonia Środa(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lech Poznań II(home) | 2-5 | III Liga - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Elana Toruń win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Victoria Września win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Victoria Września 3-2 Elana Toruń | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Elana Toruń 1-0 Victoria Września | III Liga - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Victoria Września vs Elana Toruń on May 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Elana Toruń score 1.0 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Victoria Września score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elana Toruń | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Victoria Września | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Elana Toruń sit 12th in III Liga - Group 2 (5 points from 5 matches) and Victoria Września sit 16th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Elana Toruń | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 5 |
| 16 | Victoria Września | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elana Toruń vs Victoria Września?
- The Footlab model makes Elana Toruń the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Victoria Września.
- Where and when is Elana Toruń vs Victoria Września played?
- Elana Toruń vs Victoria Września is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego, in the III Liga - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026Polonia ŚrodavsLuzino
- Oct 31, 2026Lech Poznań IIvsFlota Świnoujście
- Oct 31, 2026Unia SwarzędzvsStargard Szczeciński
- Oct 31, 2026Kluczevia StargardvsKotwica Kórnik
- Oct 31, 2026Gedania GdanskvsKalisz
- Oct 31, 2026Noteć CzarnkówvsChemik Bydgoszcz
- Oct 31, 2026Wda ŚwiecievsBałtyk Koszalin
- Oct 31, 2026Grom Nowy StawvsLipno Stęszew