Victoria Września vs Polonia Środa: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 2Group II - 19Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Września
The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Victoria Września. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Victoria Września vs Polonia Środa?
Polonia Środa starts as the favourite with a 181-point Elo edge (1,872 vs 1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Victoria Września have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Polonia Środa have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kotwica Kórnik(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Flota Świnoujście(away) | 0-5 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Luzino(home) | 1-3 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Polonia Środa(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lech Poznań II(home) | 2-5 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lipno Stęszew(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Stargard Szczeciński(home) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chemik Bydgoszcz(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Victoria Września(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bałtyk Koszalin(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Victoria Września win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Polonia Środa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Polonia Środa 1-0 Victoria Września | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Polonia Środa 0-0 Victoria Września | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Victoria Września 0-0 Polonia Środa | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Victoria Września 2-3 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Polonia Środa vs Victoria Września on Aug 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Victoria Września score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Polonia Środa score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria Września | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Polonia Środa | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Victoria Września sit 16th in III Liga - Group 2 (3 points from 5 matches) and Polonia Środa sit 1st (15 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 15 |
| 16 | Victoria Września | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Victoria Września vs Polonia Środa?
- The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Victoria Września.
- Where and when is Victoria Września vs Polonia Środa played?
- Victoria Września vs Polonia Środa is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 28, 2026Chemik BydgoszczvsLech Poznań II
- Nov 28, 2026Stargard SzczecińskivsKluczevia Stargard
- Nov 28, 2026Bałtyk KoszalinvsLuzino
- Nov 28, 2026Unia SwarzędzvsKalisz
- Nov 28, 2026Gedania GdanskvsElana Toruń
- Nov 28, 2026Kotwica KórnikvsFlota Świnoujście
- Nov 28, 2026Grom Nowy StawvsNoteć Czarnków
- Nov 28, 2026Lipno StęszewvsWda Świecie