Match

Noteć Czarnków vs Chemik Bydgoszcz: prediction and stats

III Liga - Group 2Group II - 15Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Noteć Czarnków, Czarnków

Noteć CzarnkówChemik Bydgoszcz

The Footlab model makes Noteć Czarnków the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Chemik Bydgoszcz. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Noteć Czarnków vs Chemik Bydgoszcz?

A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Noteć Czarnków (1,791) and Chemik Bydgoszcz (1,724).

Noteć Czarnków win46 %
Draw24 %
Chemik Bydgoszcz win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Noteć Czarnków have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Chemik Bydgoszcz have 5, 4 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Noteć Czarnków
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Elana Toruń(home)3-1III Liga - Group 2
Aug 19, 2026Kalisz(away)1-0III Liga - Group 2
Aug 14, 2026Unia Swarzędz(away)3-0III Liga - Group 2
Aug 8, 2026Grom Nowy Staw(home)0-2III Liga - Group 2
Jul 31, 2026Gedania Gdansk(away)3-5III Liga - Group 2
Chemik Bydgoszcz
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Flota Świnoujście(home)1-1III Liga - Group 2
Aug 19, 2026Luzino(away)1-3III Liga - Group 2
Aug 14, 2026Polonia Środa(home)1-4III Liga - Group 2
Aug 8, 2026Lech Poznań II(away)1-1III Liga - Group 2
Aug 1, 2026Kluczevia Stargard(home)3-3III Liga - Group 2

How many goals should we expect?

Noteć Czarnków score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Chemik Bydgoszcz score 2.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Noteć Czarnków1.71.347/159/15
Chemik Bydgoszcz2.21.8210/139/13

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Noteć Czarnków sit 7th in III Liga - Group 2 (9 points from 5 matches) and Chemik Bydgoszcz sit 15th (3 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Noteć Czarnków53021089
15Chemik Bydgoszcz50327123

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Noteć Czarnków vs Chemik Bydgoszcz?
The Footlab model makes Noteć Czarnków the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Chemik Bydgoszcz.
Where and when is Noteć Czarnków vs Chemik Bydgoszcz played?
Noteć Czarnków vs Chemik Bydgoszcz is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Noteć Czarnków, in the III Liga - Group 2.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Noteć Czarnków and Chemik Bydgoszcz

Ready to know everything about football?