Elche vs Valencia: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Elche. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elche vs Valencia?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Elche (2,050) and Valencia (2,099).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elche have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Valencia have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 0-5 | La Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al Ain(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Elche win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Valencia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Elche 1-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Valencia 1-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Elche 0-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Valencia 2-2 Elche | La Liga |
| Mar 19, 2022 | Elche 0-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| Dec 11, 2021 | Valencia 2-1 Elche | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Elche score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Valencia score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Valencia | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Elche sit 15th in La Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Valencia sit 11th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Valencia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Elche | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elche vs Valencia?
- The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Elche.
- Where and when is Elche vs Valencia played?
- Elche vs Valencia is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.